It’s a new year and signs are pointing to the possibility that there may also be a new real estate market. We have been enjoying a high number of sales and increasing sales prices for practically all of 2020, but we may be starting to see a slight crack in the market.
According to the National Association of Realtors, November national home sales have started to slip. Nationally, existing home sales in November fell 2.5% from October for the first time in six months. Manatee County also saw a decline in the number of closed sales in November from October of just under 7%.
As reported last week, however, Manatee County closed 40.3% more single-family homes in November 2020 compared to November 2019. Nationally, the single-family home market rose 25.8% in November 2020 compared to November 2019.
And, as far as home prices, the NAR has reported that the median existing home price rose 14.6% in November from a year earlier to $310,800. Manatee County’s median home sale price in November was $350,700, up 7.2% from a year earlier.
As usual, the biggest problem we – as well as the entire nation – have is a lack of inventory. Nationally, the NAR reported that the supply of homes on the market at the end of November was the lowest on record going back to 1982. At the end of November, Manatee County had only a 1.6 month supply of available single-family homes; nationally the number was 2.3 months’ supply, which probably accounts for the national number of sales being higher than our area.
Unfortunately, while we are still subject to the fear of contracting the virus, many homeowners don’t want to put their homes on the market, especially in the northern part of the country where they struggle with cold weather. We in Florida have a significant advantage because of warm temperatures and what is typically a good selling season, but will that improve the available inventory? We don’t know at this point.
With the hope of an influx of people flocking to our beaches and looking for a property to purchase, I did a little survey of where exactly new buyers are migrating from. The result was a surprise to me and may be to you as well.
I focused on the approximately six-week period from Nov. 1 through Dec. 15, based on sales recorded on the Manatee County Property Appraiser’s Office website. Most recorded sales show former addresses for new owners.
The city of Anna Maria had nine sales to Florida residents: Five from Tampa, one from Lakeland, one from Miami Beach, one from Eustis and one from Doral. There were two sales from Illinois, one from Oklahoma, one from Georgia, one from Tennessee and one from Arizona.
The majority of the combined cities of Bradenton Beach and Holmes Beach’s new residents came from the state of Florida; eight from Tampa and eight from Sarasota. There were two from Illinois, two from Georgia, two from New York and the balance split between Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Cortez had sales to new homeowners from Tennessee, Massachusetts, Florida and New York, one for each state.
I was somewhat surprised by this little survey. I just assumed that more people were moving here from the northeastern states, but even the New York sales were not from the city of New York. I guess Florida’s east coast is accommodating these new residents.
Statistics are a funny thing; you can interpret them in a variety of different ways, but there is no way to misinterpret our level of inventory. It’s low all over and unless and until that number improves, we’re headed for a slow-down. Stay safe.
