A year for the record books
2017 will not be a good year for the mortgage procrastinators. If you're one of those homeowners or potential homeowners who just kept waiting for the bottom of the mortgage interest rate market before you made a move, guess what you missed it.
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target rate by a quarter of a percent in mid-December, making it more expensive to borrow money. And that's not all. It also signaled that there will be more increases this year. The Fed's feeling is that since the economy is strengthening and investors are assuming that tax cuts are in their future, there will be further growth and higher wages to offset higher mortgage rates.
This essentially ends a seven-year run of historically low mortgage rates which has encouraged home buying and refinancing. In September, the home price index hit a record, primarily because of a shortage of inventory combined with low interest rates pushing selling prices up. At one point in mid-December, the rate was 4.38 percent, the highest since 2014, and as stated it is not expected to drop in the new year.
But now that mortgage rates are well over 4 percent, what will homeowners with a low rate obtained at the bottom of the market do if they want to move up? Giving up a low mortgage rate is a hard thing to do, especially if you don't have to move. There are plenty of homeowners out there who may have been thinking of trading up to a larger home or moving into a different area who are crunching numbers and may be deciding it's not worth it. If this happens, it could reduce even further available inventory, with real consequences to the real estate market.
Meanwhile, back at the beach, the October and November statistics for Manatee County reflect the summer off season and are resulting in some odd numbers:
October single-family closed properties were down 16.5 percent, but November's were up 18.4 percent. The October median single-family sale price was $280,000 up 8 percent, but the November median was down 3.3 percent to $279,000. The average single family in October sold for 2.6 less at $321,158, and the average in November sold for 3.8 percent at $337,290. Active listings for both October and November were up 11.3 percent and 6.4 percent respectively. The month's supply of single family properties was the same for October and November 4.2 months, but the October number was 13.5 percent higher, and the November number was 5 percent higher.
Condo sales in October were down 6.8 percent and in November 3.6 percent. The median sale price in October was up 2.5 percent to $174,750 and in November up 1.9 percent to $160,500. Average selling price in October was down 1.5 percent to $201,130 and down 14.5 percent in November to $192,690. Active listings were up in both October and November to 11.4 percent and 12.1 percent, respectively. And finally, the month's supply was up in October to four months or 2.6 percent and in November up 5 percent to 4.2 percent.
These months are a comparison to their respective months from last year and are provided by the Realtor Association of Manatee and Sarasota County.
The good news is the inventory is up for both single family and condos after the slower summer season. Now that the holidays are over, more homeowners will be placing their properties on the market getting ready for the busy winter season. And don't forget, even though the mortgage rates are higher, they are still exceptional for the moment. Procrastinators take heed.