I am a New Yorker, I was born in New York City and worked for 25 years in the city. Until I moved to Florida over 20 years ago, I lived my whole life in either New York City or its surrounding suburbs. I love New York City. I have never found another city anywhere in the world where I have traveled to match New York’s vibrant energy, diversity and culture; it is simply one of a kind.
However, now I fear the best of what the city has to offer may be gone. What the 911 terrorists could not do, an uncontrollable virus may very well complete. What does this mean to us now comfortably living in Florida and about to open our businesses, beaches and stores? It could mean a lot especially as it relates to real estate.
New York state has been losing residents for a long while; as of mid-2019, it lost almost 77,000 residents from the previous year. A combination of out-of-sight state and local taxes along with overpriced real estate has made it almost impossible for young families to exist in New York City and many of its suburban communities within commuting distance to the city. Now, because of the pandemic, a large percentage of employees and their companies are finding out that working remotely is possible. They are realizing they may not need to be in an office in the middle of a city, they can live wherever they want and enjoy a higher quality of life for them and their families.
Because of the virus, existing home sales fell nationally in March by 8.5% as expected. This is unfortunate after February’s growth was at the highest level in more than a year. The national real estate market was perfectly set up for a big spring buying season with low unemployment and low mortgage rates, making buying a home ideal, but now all of that is on hold. The lack of sales could have a negative effect on price growth combined with the loss of jobs, but that remains to be seen.
However, Florida – with our low taxes, low regulations and balanced budget in addition to a variety of housing options all more favorably priced than the northeast – is increasingly becoming a big draw. I read a recent interview with a realtor in southeast Florida who reported that in recent weeks he has seen a significant jump in inquiries for available properties. In the past he said he typically got one or two leads a day from the northeast. Now, he is averaging about 10 per day from the suburbs of New Jersey, Manhattan and Long Island as well as other parts of the northeast that have been hardest hit by the virus. Northeast buyers are telling him that they see a second wave of retirees relocating to Florida full time, much of it based on not only financial advantages but also lack of density.
There you have it. I cannot fall out of love with New York City, but I can see how it is changed and may no longer be the best fit for many. Residents of northeastern states may have had it paying for the privilege of living on top of each other and are ready to social distance permanently. My advice to Florida realtors is market to the northeast, especially those areas considered the tri-state – New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. My feel is there are a lot of people who have been simmering with thoughts of a change for a while and this pandemic may have put simmering over to boiling. Stay safe.
