Welcome to a new real estate year. Unfortunately, the new year looks a lot like the old year.
With interest rates and inventory levels fluctuating, a general feeling of confusion is spreading among both buyers and sellers – you might even call it fear.
The November Manatee County sales statistics are below average and confirm what most of us know – that sales are down and prices have also been trending down in recent months. However, the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee stated, “median sale prices continue to show year-over-year increases, while other factors point towards more typical market conditions.” In other words, selling prices are up compared to last year and more properties are available for sale which indicates a more normal market.
By the way, these numbers came out on Dec. 21, the day I was boarding a ship in Fort Lauderdale for a holiday cruise. Therefore, I apologize for the late reporting.
Nevertheless, the numbers don’t lie, but they do tell us that Florida in general is still in one of the better real estate sales positions in the country. In fact, per Redfin.com, an online brokerage, reports that out of the top 10 relocation choices, the state of Florida has captured five of them. They are #3 Miami; #5 Tampa; #7 Cape Coral; #8 North Port-Sarasota and #10 Orlando. The other five are in Sacramento, Las Vegas, San Diego, Phoenix and Dallas, in that order.
So where is everyone relocating from? It’s likely you’ll find familiar names in this list, as all big American cities are all bleeding population. The number one city people are leaving is San Francisco and they go down in this order: Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C., Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Denver, Seattle and Philadelphia.
Redfin says that nearly 25% of the properties searched on their site are from cities where the person doesn’t currently live. This is up roughly 10% from 5 years ago.
Let’s see what happened in Manatee County for the month of November reported by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee.
Single-family homes closed 35.6% fewer properties compared to last year. The median selling price was $506,655, up 12.5% from last year, and the average selling price was $636,674, up 7.3% from last year. Median time to contract was 29 days, compared to 6 days last year, and active listings are way up at 246.2%, translating into a 3 months’ supply of properties.
Condos closed 36.4% fewer properties compared to last year. The median selling price was $358,108, up 19.4% compared to last year, and the average selling price was $391,320, up 14.3% from last year. Median time to contract was 18 days, compared to 9 days last year, and active listings were also way up at 266.7%, translating into a 2.7 months’ supply of properties.
Interestingly, cash transactions are down from last year for both single-family by 45.6% and condos by 23.2%. Likely a reflection of the economy in general.
Predictions for the new year are all over the place. Part of the reason no one can figure it out is the speed of last year’s mortgage rate increases gave everyone whiplash. And the Federal Reserve chairman has virtually promised more to come during his December speech raising the prime rate by 0.5%. The sad thing is most prospective buyers can still qualify for loans even at the higher rates but are afraid to buy in such an unpredictable market.
Real estate is still a good investment and Florida is one of the best markets in the country. So, don’t let fear rule you in the new year, do your due diligence and make informed decisions. Welcome to 2023.
