HomeBusinessLet’s talk turkey

Let’s talk turkey

So, after the turkey is consumed, the pies are half gone and the dishwasher is running its first load, it’s time to talk turkey. And what’s everyone’s favorite dinner conversation – real estate.

Let’s start with one of the mysteries of the ages, why mortgage rates go up and down. If you think you’re going to get an understandable answer from me, guess again. Some mysteries are never solved.

As of this writing, the average rates are 6.89% for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage and 6.26% for a 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage. Adjustable-rate mortgages are 5.52%, not too much better but could put borderline buyers in the range of qualifying. These rates have actually ticked down a little from 7% a few weeks ago in spite of the Federal Reserve upping their rate by 0.75% again.

Nationally, home sales typically go down when rates go up since fewer potential homeowners qualify for a loan. Despite the sharp decline in sales, home prices are rising on a year-over-year basis, in part be- cause supply remains low. Unfortunately, a slower housing demand affects other goods and services. Furniture, appliances, lumber and plumbing sales declined in September due to less demand for those products, slowing down the overall economy.

Not surprising, the future predictions are all over the place. The Mortgage Bank-
ers Association thinks mortgage rates are expected to end 2022 at 4.8% and to decline gradually to 4.6% by 2024. Good news, if you believe it, for buyers who are trying to decide between an adjustable-rate mortgage and a conventional one.

The National Association of Realtors kind of agrees with the above, saying that all in all, the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is likely to hit 5.3% by the end of the year, and that 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages will be at 4% by the end of the year.

Finally, a senior economist at Zillow says that competing dynamics suggest that there will be little reason for mortgage rates to decline anytime soon.

As far as pricing is concerned, the National Association of Realtors expects prices to post year-over-year declines starting next year.

Let’s just see what the Manatee County market did for the month of October according to the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee.

Single-family homes closed at 22.5% less than last October. The median price was $549,444, up 29.3% from last year and the average price was $711,358, up 25.8% from last year. Median time to contract was 24 days compared to 6 days last October and the month’s supply of properties was 2.8 months versus 0.8 last year.

Condos closed 22.5% less than last October. The median price was $368,700, up 32.6%, and the average price was $388,103, up 17.4%. Median time to contract was
22 days versus 7 days last year and the month’s supply of properties was 2.3 months compared to 0.6 last year.

The trend of fewer sales and raising inventory is continuing. Some real estate analysts feel the market is leveling off with less of a bounce to higher values. A lot of this as it relates to Florida is impacted by hurricanes, interest rates and inflation. And we’re not alone. Just coming over one of my news feeds is a report that home sales nationally fell for a ninth straight month in October, according to the National Association of Realtors.

I hope this gives you some debatable information to discuss at the Thanksgiving dinner table. Just remember that when it comes to talking turkey, you probably know as much as anyone. Happy Thanksgiving.

Most Popular

More from Author

Declutter, depersonalize, clean

After perusing what I like to consider my very organized database...

Winter of the big freeze

You should have warmed up from the unusually cold Florida winter....

Are mortgage rates really going down?

Did we ever think this day would arrive? Those in the...

Insurance premiums painful

There are few things related to the real estate industry that...

Mangrove jurisdiction differs by county

ANNA MARIA – The outcome of the removal of 116 feet of mangroves to build a seawall at a Gull Drive home may have been different if the property had been located in Sarasota County instead of Manatee County. A contractor removed some of the mangroves prior to...

Bunny & Pirates Bazaar to close soon

CORTEZ – The closing of Bunny & Pirates Bazaar is imminent, but not by the choice of owners Elizabeth Shore and Jeffrey O’Connell. The news of the closing was announced by the two business owners on Facebook on March 16, two days after a notice to vacate was...

Anna Maria responds to county consolidation option

ANNA MARIA – The city of Anna Maria has responded to a March 5 request for information from OPPAGA regarding the potential consolidation and annexation of the city into Manatee County. The cities of Holmes Beach and Bradenton Beach received similar requests from the Office of Program Policy...

Jewelry Sale offers great deals for a great cause

HOLMES BEACH - For the second year in a row, the Anna Maria Island community has shown incredible support for the Island Branch Library. The Friends of the Island Library (FIL), a group of volunteers dedicated to fundraising and support for the library, held their second annual...

Ellen Scott celebrated

BRADENTON BEACH – Family and friends joyously celebrated the life and legacy of longtime Braden­ton Beach resident and honorary Privateer Ellen Scott at the Drift In on Saturday, March 16. Ellen passed away on March 1 at the age of 85. Ellen’s son, Bob Slicker, thanked those in...

Anna Maria increasing vacation rental registration fees

ANNA MARIA – The city is increasing its occupancy-based annual vacation rental registration fee from $84.17 to $93.92 per occupant allowed by the local vacation rental ordinance. The annual registration fee is estab­lished each year by the adoption of a city commission-approved resolution. The increased fees were established...

City Park renamed Jan Vosburgh Park

BRADENTON BEACH – The park across the street from city hall, referred to only as City Park, will be renamed after longtime City Commissioner Jan Vosburgh. The discussion of the naming of the beach access park just south of the Beach House parking lot was introduced at the...

Bird Tips

During bird nesting season, March through August, please follow these tips: Never touch a shorebird chick, even if it’s wandering outside a staked nesting area. Teach kids not to chase birds – if they’re disturbed, bird parents may abandon nests. Don’t feed birds – our food is...

Government calendar

Anna Maria 10005 Gulf Drive For information, call 941-708-6130 Please visit www.cityofannamaria.com or contact city hall for more information. March 21, 1 p.m. – Charter Review meeting March 28, 6 p.m. – City Commission meeting March 29, all day – City offices closed, Good Friday   Bradenton Beach 107 Gulf Drive N. For information, call 941-778-1005 Please visit...

Beach Nutz

       

Events

Wednesday, March 20 Creative Aging: Figure Drawing, Island Branch Library, 5701 Marina Drive, Holmes Beach, 10 a.m. Holy Yoga, Roser Church outdoor stage, 512 Pine Ave., Anna Maria, 11:30 a.m. Nature Art, Robinson Preserve Mosaic Nest, 840 99th St. N.W., Bradenton, 1 p.m., $10 Coral Reef Science with Mote, Island Branch...