If storm forecasters are accurate, 2020 might not be remembered fondly.
As the world deals with a deadly virus raging around our planet, storm forecasters are predicting the likelihood of more than normal tropical storms and hurricanes this season.
The prediction, written by meteorologists Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell and Jhordanne Jones, said, “We estimate that 2020 will have about eight hurricanes (average is 6.4), 16 named storms (average is 12.1), 80 named storm days (average is 59.4), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.2), four major (Category 3-5) hurricanes (average is 2.7) and nine major hurricane days (average is 6.2). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 130% of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2020 to be approximately 140% of their long-term averages.“
The team came to the conclusion based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using 38 years of past data, according to the report.
Global warming could be involved. A weak La Nina could form during the summer; La Nina conditions allow storms to form more easily. The tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal, while the subtropical Atlantic is quite warm, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool. The anomalously cold sea surface temperatures in the far North Atlantic lead predictors to believe that more friendly El Nino conditions will be absent this season.
An updated report will be released on June 4.
The prediction ended with these words of wisdom.
“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
