2019 real estate trends

Castles in the Sand

Every profession has its experts and every expert has their expert advice for the future. Sometimes they’re right, sometimes they’re wrong, and sometimes they wish they’d never gotten out of bed. Have you seen the stock market? Nevertheless, the experts still keep on coming, and for the 2019 real estate market, I found a couple for you.

Forbes.com is a wealth of information about any business venue. It will even tell you the net worth of celebrities – Steven Spielberg, $3.7 billion and Oprah Winfrey, $2.8 billion. But what they are really good at is predicting the future or as it calls it, future trends.

For the 2019 real estate market, it talks a lot about the Millennials, which are the largest segment of buyers. Forty-five percent of new mortgages will be applied for by millennials vs. 17 percent by boomers. In 2020, when the Millennials turn 30, Forbes pushes that buying trend up even further and is predicting a good real estate year. This year, however, Forbes says it will be a slow real estate year which could be good long-term since the demographics (millennials) will support the demand. This is expert talk.

It also feels that first time buyers will be looking at condos and lower end vacation homes.

These properties are less expensive, which will make them, more affordable in view of raising interest rates, again talking about Millennials.

On another note, Forbes is recommending purchasing property in the Bahamas, which after being hit by several hurricanes is just starting to rebuild. Waterfront property there is 10 cents on the dollar compared to waterfront property in Florida and only a 20-minute flight.

Realtor.com has two shocking forecasts. The first one is that mortgage interest rates will hit 5.5 percent by the end of the year, and the second is that the market will remain a sellers’ market. Sellers can glow over this, but the buyers aren’t going to cave in to any price sellers are asking, so sellers are going to have a little tough going.

Not tough going, however, are Manatee County’s November sales statistics taken from the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee’s website.

Single-family homes closed 7.6 percent more properties than last November, and condo’s closed 12.9 percent more. The median sale price (half above and half below) for single-family homes was up 8.5 percent to $313,496 from last November. Condo sales were also up 2.0 percent to $186,500 from last November. The average sale price for single-family homes is up 4.9 percent to $379,982, and the condo average sale price is up 1.4 percent to $255,619. The median time to sell for single family and condos are all between 90 and 95 days, and the month’s supply on the market is staying about four months for all housing sectors.

The big news for November is that our neighbor Sarasota has finally broken into the $300,000 price point for the median sale price, increasing 5.3 percent from last year. Manatee County has achieved this several times this year but this is the first time Sarasota has.

Our numbers are looking good compared to Florida statewide results. The median sale price for single-family homes was $255,000, up 6.3 percent, and the median sale price for condos was $185,000, up 5.1 percent. These numbers are reported by the Florida Realtors Research Department.

Are our future lives being dictated by 30-year-old Millennials? Something tells me yes, they are. As long as they keep the real estate market flowing, it’s OK by me, and that’s my prediction.

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