What will the federal reserve do next?
As if there isn’t enough volatility in our lives with the stock market in hysterics, the presidential race in full swing and not to mention never ending international problems, now we have to try and understand what the impact of Federal Reserve policy will have on our life. Well, as it turns out, not that much at least not yet.
Although the Federal Reserve hasn’t announced exactly when or by how much rates will rise, Chairwoman Janet Yellin has said that the jump will likely be at a slower pace than in previous economic recoveries. Considering that this has been the slowest economic recovery since the end of World War II, Yellin’s observation is a bit of an understatement. In fact, based on what’s been going on with the stock market recently the smart financial suits are betting that there won’t be an increase any time soon.
The last time the Federal Reserve raised interest rates was June 2006. For all the years since then, we’ve all gotten use to really cheap money, particularly for home mortgages, and even if rates start getting tighter, home mortgage rates should continue to be low, right around that 4 percent level we’ve gotten use to. This year the highest 30-year, fixed-rate home mortgage was only 4.27 percent in June and the lowest in April of 3.73 percent pretty close to where it is now.
The good news is that even if the Federal Reserve raises rates, it won’t have too much of an effect on conventional home mortgage rates. 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage loans key off the 10-year Treasury yield, which most observers predict will remain fairly stable allowing people with good credit ratings to continue to see advantageous loan rates.
However, be careful with adjustable rate mortgage loans, which are pegged to a variable rate index that rises or falls based on short term interest rates that could change with an increase by the Federal Reserve. Essentially, it’s not advisable to take out an adjustable rate mortgage in today’s market unless you expect to sell the home before the rate is scheduled to reset.
When rates ultimately go up, which they almost have to, it could make a significant impact on the affordability of a home. The rule of thumb is for every 1 percent of rate increase it affects purchasing power by 12 percent, putting you in the position of looking for a less expensive home. Obviously, this could have an overall negative effect on the value of real estate, especially in a high valued area like Anna Maria.
And speaking of high value areas, it is actually cheaper to get a non-conforming jumbo mortgage on a higher priced home than on lower priced properties. The jumbo loan market is anything above the Fannie Mae Freddie Mac limit of $417,000 for this year. The jumbo loan limit is set by region with higher limits allowed in higher priced areas.
As of this writing you can get a 30-year, fixed-rate jumbo mortgage for 3.75 percent compared to the average of a 30-year, fixed-rate conforming loan of 4 percent. Since the interest rates on jumbo loans are set by the banks that hold them, they can adjust the rates. Rates on regular mortgages are generally set by the investors who buy the loans like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
If all of these predicaments are driving you to your bed with the covers pulled over your head, join the party. As in anything relative to buying and selling property, you have to do what fits your time frame, not anyone else’s.