The National Association of Realtors has published ita December report of home sale statistics and its opinions about the year going forward. The only problem is the more you read, the less you know.

Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, has looked into his crystal ball and claims that existing home sales are forecasted to rise about 7 percent in 2015. He is comfortable with this statement based on the strengthening economy, solid job gains and a healthy increase in home prices.

According to Yun, home prices have risen for the past three years cumulatively about 25 percent with the national median existing home price being $208,500, the highest since 2007’s $219,000 and a 5.8 percent increase from 2013 of $197,100. However, with one month remaining in the 2014 data, he expects total existing home sales to finish the year down by 3 percent from 2013. So home prices are going up and number of sales are going down, I think.

He goes on to say that the NRA expects first time buyers to slowly return to the market as the economy improves and new mortgage products are created, featuring low down payments and changes in private mortgage insurance requirements. He finishes with the uplifting statement that despite his forecasted increase in sales, you can also anticipate a rise in interest rates and lenders still not easing underwriting standards. This will probably result in homeowners being unwilling to move because they are comfortable with their current low interest rate. In his words, these are potential “speed bumps” that could slow the pace of sales in 2015. Somebody please tell me what this man is talking about.

Well, maybe we don’t actually care about what Yun is saying on a national level, since Manatee County is experiencing a whole different real estate market, according to the December statistics for Manatee County as compiled by the Manatee Association of Realtors:

Closed sales of single family homes in December 2014 compared to December 2013 were up 24 percent, and pending sales were up 2.7 percent. Median sales price was up 2.2 percent to $235,000 and average sale price was up 3.6 percent to $292,409. In fact, December 2014 had the most closed sales during the previous 12-month period of 553. Single-family home new listings were down 1.1 percent, not surprising since there were record sales.

Closed sales in Manatee County for townhouses and condos also were up in 14.5 percent in December 2014 compared to December 2013, but pending sales were down 6.8 percent. Median sale price was up 11.2 percent to $168,000 and average sale price was up 6.7 percent to $216,910. Also, except for the month of April 2014, closed sales were the highest in December 2014 at 213 than the previous 12-month period. Finally, new listings for condos were up 11.1 percent this December compared to last.

On Anna Maria Island in November and December there were four over one million dollar sales. One in the city of Anna Maria in December for $1,425,000, and three in Holmes Beach one in November for $1,170,000 and two in December, both at $1,300,000.

My head is spinning from all the spin. Yes, the economy is getting better, maybe; yes, interest rates are at an all time low; oops, interest rates may go up; housing has bounced back, well that depends on where you are. Houdini would have trouble trying to unlock all the data even with a key.