In my last article, I mentioned the fact the stock market had risen for seven months straight, and while this was not a rare event, investors should be ready for a pause in this upward trend at some time in the near future. The main theme of that article was not to start to put all of your sideline cash to work after such an impressive run, but to be methodical in making new investments if you find yourself being cash heavy today.

I thought the concept of the seven up months was worth a deeper look to see if, historically, there may be some significance to this trend. After all, while financial market history is not guaranteed to repeat itself exactly, there are certainly some themes which can act as a guide.

According to www.tradersnarrative.com, there have been 15 occasions since World War II where the S&P 500 Index went up seven months in a row. The previous 14 reveal some trends which may be helpful when determining whether to buy, sell, or hold in your portfolio.

While this seven consecutive up month trend was generally a positive sign for additional future returns for stocks, there is at least a moderate risk of decline in the near future, supporting my cautionary comments in the last article to not be in a hurry to put a lot of cash to work now.

The three month time period following the seven consecutive up months had the most risk with 29 percent of the time (4 out of 14) resulting in declines ranging from 1 to 12 percent in the S&P 500 Index. Honestly, I was surprised the results were this favorable, and despite my cautionary tone a couple weeks ago, I was pleased to see there were 4 cases where the market moved higher in the next three months, with gains exceeding 5 percent.

The really good news, and, of course, there can be no guarantees that a historic pattern repeats itself in a predictable manner, is that the results six and 12 months after the initial seven consecutive up months are impressive. Better yet, the ratio of up to down experiences is very much skewed to the up side.

For example, the next six months after a seven consecutive month run had 13 cases of the S&P 500 moving higher, and only one where it went down. The one losing case was -5.4 percent and the average gain for the 13 up cases was +7.9 percent.

Looking at a 12 month horizon following a seven consecutive up months event, declines occurred twice, with the biggest loss being just 3.3 percent, and 12 times were positive, with 7 of the 12 being double digit gains in excess of 11 percent.

While we’re at this review of history, we also want be fair and relate how historical trends don’t always come true. It is widely known that September and October are the poorest months for stock market performance on average, with September being the worst. Most expected a market correction this September, but instead the S&P 500 went up over 3.6 percent. Since 1950, 57 percent of Septembers resulted in losses for stocks prices. But when September is up, like this year, the returns during the fourth quarter of the year are positive 84 percent of the time, or about 8 out of 10 years. The average fourth quarter gain following a positive September is about 4.8 percent.

One last time – no guarantees can be implied or taken from looking at how past market trends unfolded. But some lessons and conclusions may be drawn as long as the investor understands the consequences to his/her personal situation if the trends discussed do not result in the anticipated or hoped for result.

Also, while I was personally glad to read of these statistics to support the potential for continued recovery in stock prices, I stilla believe a methodical approach to investing additional capital in the stock market is a good idea.

Tom Breiter is president of Breiter Capital Management, Inc., an Anna Maria based investment advisor. He can be reached at 778-1900. Some of the investment concepts highlighted in this column may carry the risk of loss of principal, and investors should determine appropriateness for their personal situation before investing.

Tom Breiter is president of Breiter Capital Management, Inc., an Anna Maria based investment advisor. He can be reached at 778-1900. Some of the investment concepts highlighted in this column may carry the risk of loss of principal, and investors should determine appropriateness for their personal situation before investing.