Every day I watch the tides change. Sometimes they’re low, sometimes they’re high, and every day is different. You could say almost the same thing about mortgage interest rates, but the tides for rates are starting to get lower.
Mortgage rates are ringing in the new year much lower than their near 8% peak this past fall. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage has decreased for multiple weeks with a slight uptick. However, the overall trajectory of mortgage interest rates in 2024 is expected to decrease according to the National Association of Realtors.
While mortgage interest rates ease there will be weekly shifts in the average rate, however, the National Association of Realtors is predicting that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage will average 6.3% in 2024. Between late October and mid-December 2023, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage decreased by more than a percentage point. In real money, the difference between a 6.62% rate and a 7.12% rate is $173 monthly on a $400,000 loan, enough of a difference for some buyers to qualify for a home or a better home. Lower mortgage rates are certainly welcome and will make news, but the problems of dealing with the challenges of low inventory and high home prices will not change quickly on a national basis and may continue to rise. Buyers are more optimistic but are still facing a lack of properties that are being held onto by owners with ultra-low mortgage rates.
End of year 2023 sales and December sales for Manatee County are both looking better than the national numbers. Let’s see what those statistics look like reported by the National Association of Realtors and the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee.
Nationally, sales of previously owned homes dropped to the lowest in 28 years, down 19%. Manatee County single-family sales were up 7.3% and sales of condos were down 0.8%. The single-family median selling price for Manatee County in 2023 was down 2.1%, but the median selling price for condos was up 5%.
The December sales compared to December 2022 nationally for previously owned homes fell 6.2%. Manatee County’s single-family closed home sales were up 13.6% from December 2022 and the median sale price was $499,900, down 1.4%. Condos closed 25.4% fewer in December 2023 compared to the previous year, and the median sale price was $350,000, up 1.6% from December 2022.
The month’s supply for both single-family and condos is up. Single-family homes have a 3.3-month supply of properties available and condos have a 4.6-month supply of properties available.
Our area continues to outpace the national market. Manatee County appears to be stabilizing with more inventory available and is pointing to a good upcoming sales season, however, what happens overall in the country can still affect Florida.
We’re all hoping for a good year since the tide of real estate has an overall effect on the economy. The number of properties sold impacts the furniture business, remodeling companies and the sale of everything from paint to lawnmowers. The jobs market is also closely tied to the real estate market, not only in retail but for real estate companies and their employees.
The owner of the first real estate company I worked for once said, “If you’re gone for a week, the entire real estate market is different when you return.” That is essentially true. Properties sell, others are listed and interest rates change. The ebb and flow dictate the marketplace and always will.
